Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-05-25T00:15:30

High energy (>2MeV) electron flux at GOES19 is expected to persist at mostly high levels through the first half of the period, especially during the diurnal maxima. Some coronal hole influences are possible Days 3-4 (27-28 May), bringing the possibility of a reduction in flux levels. However, the coronal hole influence may be weak in which case it could have limited impact on the electron flux.

The 24 hour integrated fluence is currently above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, and is likely to remain Active at least into Day 2 (26 May). A declining trend is possible Days 3-4, should the expected coronal hole influence cause a flux dropout, but confidence here is low. MOSWOC REFM is significantly under-forecasting the current fluence level, and is likely to continue to do so for the next few days, with this model currently considered to be giving poor guidance.