Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-06-01T00:15:29

High energy (>2MeV) electron flux at GOES19 is expected to remain at generally Moderate levels into the period, with the chance of brief High diurnal peaks possibly increasing into Days 2-3 (02-03 June), as solar winds ease. By Day 4 (04 June) the next fast stream of solar wind should arrive and this should suppress flux levels again. 

The 24 hour integrated fluence is well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, and is expected to remain below Active levels throughout the period. However, a rising trend may develop through Days 1 to 3 (01-03 June). MOSWOC REFM shows this possibility, however is considered to be over-predicting the chance of reaching Active fluence levels, so is considered low confidence for guidance at present.