MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-05-31T00:14:19
High energy (>2MeV) electron flux at GOES19 is expected to remain at generally Background to Moderate levels into the period. The chance of brief High diurnal peaks may increase by Day 3-4 (02-03 June).
The 24 hour integrated fluence remains well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, and is expected to remain well below Active levels throughout the period. MOSWOC REFM shows a below Active forecast, which is considered generally good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2026-05-31T00:14:19 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |