MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-05-09T00:13:41
GOES19 >2MeV electron flux is expected to persist at Background to Moderate levels until after the current fast wind enhancement begins to subside, which will bring a chance of diurnally High flux Days 2-4 (10-12 May).
The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active level for the period, initially on a relatively steady trend before increasing from Day 2 (10 May) as fast winds ease. MOSWOC REFM and recurrence indicate a gentle rising trend though both expect fluence to remain below Active throughout.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2026-05-09T00:13:41 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |