Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-05-08T00:13:17

GOES19 >2MeV electron flux is expected to persist at Background to Moderate levels until after the next fast wind enhancement. There is some evidence that we are starting to see the high speed stream associated with CH50/+, which will bring a chance of diurnally High flux Days 1-3 (08-10 May).

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active level for much of the period, on a relatively steady trend, before perhaps increasing from Day 2 (09 May) in response to any fast wind enhancement. MOSWOC REFM or recurrence does not allude to any rise in fluence levels, so the forecast is currently considered low confidence.