Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-05-15T00:13:39

GOES19 >2MeV electron flux has persisted at Background to Moderate levels. It is likely that flux levels will remain at a similar levels through Day 1 (15 May). The arrival of fast solar wind from CH53/- during Day 2 (15 May) is expected to suppress electron flux to predominantly Background levels. Electron flux may begin to increase from Day 4 (18 May) as solar wind speeds start to weaken, although confidence in this is low.

The associated 24‑hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated flux) threshold throughout the period, despite a probable increasing trend later in the period as fast solar wind conditions weaken.  Despite a lack of a gradually increasing trend, later in the period, the MOSWOC REFM model is considered to be offering reasonable guidance, keeping the fluence below Active.