Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-05-13T00:15:36

GOES19 >2MeV electron flux has persisted at Background to Moderate levels. Fast winds from CH50 are now comfortably at Background levels, with little response observed in electron flux levels. It is likely therefore that flux levels will remain at a similar level to start, only perhaps rising in response to any geomagnetic activity observed from potential glancing CME early on Day 1 (13 May). This would likely only be short-lived however, with the next fast wind from CH53/- then expected by Day 3 (15 May) likely suppressing electron counts once again. Electron counts may start to rise on Day 4 (16 May) as the fast winds begin to weaken, but this is low confidence. 

The associated 24‑hour fluence is expected to remain below the active threshold throughout the period. There is an indication of a slight rise on Day 2 (14 May) if electron counts increase following any geomagnetic activity associated with a CME arrival, with a somewhat greater chance of active fluence toward the end of the period as the fast winds weaken.