Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-04-13T00:09:38

High energy (>2 MeV) electron flux at GOES19 has remained at Background to Moderate during the last 24 hours. While some charging of the outer Van Allen Belt has likely occurred as a result of the recent fast wind enhancements, the lack of significant geomagnetic activity leads to uncertainty with the extent that this occurred. This also limits the value of 27-day recurrence, given the associated activity was much greater on the previous rotation. Periods of High flux are still expected, these most likely around the diurnal maximum period.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold on day 1 (13 Apr) with an increasing chance of rising above into days 3 and 4 (15-16 Apr). MOSWOC REFM is currently overestimating the observed flux, although supports a rising trend and maybe a little too high with its peak. Recurrence is a better guide but may also be a little on the high side.