MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-04-06T00:10:40
High energy (>2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES19 has been mostly high over the last 24 hours, due to the recent CME and HSS influence causing charging within the outer radiation belt. As the CME and HSS influence continues to wane, electron flux levels are likely to increase further during Days 1-2 (06-07 Apr), although the low risk of a CME glancing blow in the forecast reduces confidence in the evolution a little.
The 24 hour electron fluence is now expected to remain above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through this period, assuming that the low confidence CME misses Earth on Day 1. This is supported by MOSWOC REFM, which shows above Active fluence through the next three days.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2026-04-06T00:10:40 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 5% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 10% |
| Day 3 | 80% | 10% |
| Day 4 | 70% | 10% |