Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-03-22T00:09:18

GOES‑19 high‑energy (>2 MeV) electron flux has remain suppressed due to CME influence and is likely to continue through into Day 2 (23 Mar) following anticipated HSS connection with CH33/-. From Day 3 (24 Mar) onwards flux levels are expected to generally increase as geomagnetic activity and solar wind pressure slowly wanes, with increasing potential for periods above High levels possible, especially during the diurnal maximum. 

The associated 24hr electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated flux) initially, with a rising tend expected into Days 3 and 4 (24-25 Mar), and values expected to breach the Active threshold by the end of the period. MOSWOC REFM is over-estimating current values, but the signal for a rising trend later in the period toward the Active threshold is considered reasonable guidance.