Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-04-11T00:28:21

High energy (>2 MeV) electron flux at GOES19 has been mostly Moderate over the last 24 hours, but briefly High during the diurnal maxima. Electron flux is expected to be Moderate initially, but rise through the period, becoming High or Very High, as solar wind pressure eases and the likely recent charging event within the electron belts becomes evident at GEO.

The 24 hour electron fluence is expected to be below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold initially, before rising later day 1 and into day 2 (11-12 Apr), with a Chance of becoming Active by day 2 (12 Apr), then Likely by days 3 and 4 (13-14 Apr). MOSWOC REFM forecast trend is deemed good guidance from late 11 Apr onward.