Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-10-14T00:11:16

The high energy electron forecast is now of lowered confidence given the belated arrival solar fast wind from CH58/-. Initial Normal Background to Moderate diurnal variation is likely to show some attenuation at first, probably rebounding at GEO later in the UTC weekend, with perhaps a restored Chance of surpassing Active should the fast wind be emitted nearer the expected 600km/s rather than the purely radial assumption of 450-500km/s. The very end of the four day period should again see reducing counts at GEO in terms of electrons, however the exceedance risk still applies for earlier in that UTC day.