MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-09-14T00:22:52
High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux observed by GOES-16 is expected to remain generally at background to Moderate levels through much of the period, with geomagnetic activity at above background levels due to coronal hole high-speed stream and possible CME influences. By day 4 (17 Sep) electron flux may rise to High levels at diurnal peak as geomagnetic activity likely subsides.
The associated 24-hour fluence will most likely remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout the period. MOSWOC REFM is considered to be giving good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-09-14T00:22:52 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |