Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-10-15T00:15:42

High energy electron flux at GEO is likely to gradually restore into the new working week, bringing a Chance of 24-hour integrated Active fluence before the onset of the fast wind from CH60 later in the UTC day of Monday 16 October. The expected gap following geomagnetic activity from this fast wind and the potential for up to two following glances from CMEs on Wednesday 18 October is considered unlikely to offer sufficient respite for levels at GEO to recover before again being suppressed, although the slight rising trend in probabilities of Active fluence on Wednesday allows for the CMEs to miss or arrive later than billed. There is then the prospect of belated recovery in the second half of the UTC working week, i.e. just beyond the four-day forecast in the wake of any CME activity.