Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-10-07T00:11:19

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES16 reached mainly moderate levels at the diurnal maximum over the last few days. After the recent CME arrival, a slight rise is possible during this period until potential CME shock and HSS effects on Day 3 (09 Oct) may cause a suppression in flux.

Electron fluence is forecast to be well below Active (1e8 integrated pfu) at first, but with a slight upward trend possible during the period. This may decline again on Day 3 (09 Oct). Overall, fluence is considered most likely to stay below Active levels. MOSWOC REFM is forecasting a below Active trend through the next 3 days.