MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-10-13T00:38:08
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is forecast to continue at background to moderate levels, with a HSS from CH58 no longer expected to arrive, and the next HSS from CH60 not expected until late in the period.
Therefore the associated 24-hour fluence is expected to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, as indicated by the Met Office REFM model.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-10-13T00:38:08 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |