MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-10-21T00:15:42
Electron flux observed by GOES16 at GEO is currently background levels. Solar wind enhancements are possible through the coming days, with two possible weak CME arrivals, and also the potential for two weak HSSs. These are all low confidence however, and any enhancement is expected to be largely weak. Influence from these features could increase the electron flux in the Van Allen belts during the period, which could bring periods of moderate flux, most likely towards the end of the period.
The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to remain well below the Active threshold, as supported by MOSWOC REFM output. However, the model does not take into account any potential CME arrivals. Therefore, fluence levels may increase slightly towards the end of the forecast period, but this is low confidence.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-10-21T00:15:42 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |