MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-10-22T00:12:55
Electron flux observed by GOES16 at GEO is currently at background levels. Solar wind enhancements are possible through the coming days, with the possibility of weak CME arrivals on Day 1 (22 Oct) and the onset and influence of a HSS from Day 3 (24 Oct). Low confidence in detail with any enhancement expected to be largely weak. Influence from these features could increase the electron flux in the Van Allen belts during the period, which could bring periods of moderate flux, most likely towards the end of the period.
The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, as supported by MOSWOC REFM output. However, the model does not take into account any potential CME arrivals. Fluence levels may rise towards the end of the guidance period as is reflected in a slight uplift for probabilities.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-10-22T00:12:55 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |