Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-10-23T00:11:18

Electron flux observed by GOES16 at GEO is currently at Normal Background levels and is very likely to remain here given the expected relative lack of CMEs and modest potency of inbound coronal holes' fast winds - at least until the possible late arrival of CH64/+.

Persistence forecasting is polluted by CMEs from last pass, however the latest MOSWOC REFM is almost unmoved from current 24-hour fluence levels across its full 72-hour range. This may be expected to show more of an uptick as it comes to encompass the coming UTC day of Thursday in the next 24 hours, with the predecessor of CH64/+'s fast wind beginning to show, however even this will probably fall short of Active.

Any increase in 24-hour fluence is therefore not likely to manifest until the close the current UTC working week, with perhaps a Slight Chance on Thursday 26 October, should the fast wind arrive on the early end of estimates around midweek UTC.