Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-11-20T13:25:36

Electron flux levels are expected to continue in a similar vein to the UTC weekend at first, having likely reached a steady state in varying between Normal Background and Moderate flux levels. Following the arrival of the 16/0100UTC CME, flux levels at GEO may be briefly suppressed, with this effect probably sustained by any fast wind from CH73, before a late-week (UTC) increase to a peak Chance of Active fluence.

The onset of the 16/0100UTC CME early in the four-day forecast period is likely to render REFM ineffective as a forecast tool for a time, although its utility should increase significantly as the week progresses.