Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-12-20T13:24:19

High energy electron flux is at largely normal background levels and expected to remain so early in the period due to the ongoing, but declining fast wind from CH82/+. Daily High electron flux levels may be achieved from day 2 (21 Dec) onwards as the solar wind pressure subsides and the Van Allen belts relax towards background again. This may continue through days 3 and 4 (22-23 Dec), with a chance of more persistently High levels, however, any connection to CH83/- (low confidence) would act to suppress electrons once again to become mainly background. 

There is high confidence that electron fluence will remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold on days 1 and 2 (20-21 Dec). From day 3 (22 Dec) onwards Active fluence is not expected, but carries low confidence, with a slight chance of exceeding threshold values.