Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-12-14T00:23:57

High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, is currently at background. The timing and strength of solar winds enhancement from CH79/+ is low confidence, but is currently expected to be relatively weak, occurring later on day 1 or day 2 (14-15 Dec). This will limit the extent of any increased flux through the Van Allen Belts, with observed flux rising to Moderate, perhaps briefly touch High on day 2 and into day 3 (15-16 Dec). The arrival of a CME on day 3 (16 Dec) is then likely to return flux to background.  

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, but may rise closer to the Active threshold by the end of the period, depending on the timing and strength of the next anticipated HSS, and any subsequent CME impact on day 3 (16 Dec).