Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-11-13T13:27:43

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at High levels over recent days in response to the fast wind from CH67/-. The electron flux dropout, associated with the 09 Nov CME which arrived around 12/0530 UTC, was observed after midnight and the electron flux is now currently at background levels. There is low confidence in the behaviour of the electron flux in the coming days, but it is possible we may see an increase in the electron flux again over the coming days, along with the decline in geomagnetic activity. 

Electron fluence is currently declining but has a risk of increasing again day 2 onwards in response to the increased electron flux, but with low confidence in the timing, this will bring a chance of active fluence later in the period. However, MOSWOC REFM is suggesting active fluence may occur through the next three days - this is perhaps an overestimate, however there is a chance of reaching active.