Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-11-07T00:24:59

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at background levels. This is likely to be due to the solar wind pressure from the HSS distorting the radiation belt away from the position of GOES16. A flux increase in the radiation belt is considered likely after the recent CME effects, followed by the strong wind speeds. A sharp recovery in flux is therefore possible in the coming days as the solar wind eases and the radiation belt relaxes, with high levels possible. 

Associated 24-hour electron flux is expected to be below the Active threshold at first, with the potential for a sharp increase during this period. There is a chance of fluence exceeding the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold by Days 3 and 4 (09 and 10 Nov). Confidence is reasonable in the possibility of an increase, but low for the timing and magnitude of this. MOSWOC REFM is forecasting an increase below the Active threshold, although this is only for the next 3 days.