Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-10-08T00:17:15

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES16 has achieved moderate levels at the diurnal maximum in recent days. This is expected to continue through the period, with a slight chance of briefly reaching High levels during the diurnal max. The potential CME shock and HSS effects on Day 2 (09 Oct) could potentially lead to a degree of temporary suppression in the flux but activity is likely to be raised again for the end of this four day guidance period..

Electron fluence is forecast to be well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level throughout. MOSWOC REFM output is offering reasonable guidance with a mostly flat trend, held below Active threshold level, but levels appear to be a little too low.