Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-12-06T01:06:38

Electron flux is at Background levels, with a diurnal peak at Moderate. The Van Allen belts are still suppressed following recent enhanced geomagnetic activity associated with the HSS from CH76/- and CME glancing blows. An increase towards Moderate to High diurnal levels is possible by later Day 2 or Day 3 (07-08 Dec) as the electron belts relax back towards ambient positions. However, the slight chance of a glancing blow from a CME late Day 1 (06 Dec) or early Day 2 reduces confidence in the forecast.  

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. However, a rising trend is likely to continue, with a more steep increase possible Day 2 onwards (07 Dec) with an increasing chance of exceeding the Active threshold into Day 3 or more likely Day 4 (09 Dec). Current REFM forecast is considered to be providing reasonable guidance.