Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-11-29T01:21:21

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is currently at background in the presence of a slightly elevated solar wind. As the solar wind speed eases through day 1 (29 Nov) a slight increase in electron flux values is possible, likely rising to moderate levels and potentially to high levels on diurnal peaks. However any increases are subject to the possible CME arrivals from day 2 onward (30 Nov-02 Dec), which are likely to further suppress values.

Overall electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). This is supported by REFM.