Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-11-22T12:43:33

Electron flux levels are expected to continue fluctuating between Normal Background and Moderate flux levels initially, being suppressed by the current coronal hole high speed stream. Later in the period flux levels may increase with a chance of the High 1000 pfu threshold being breached near the diurnal maximum, as coronal hole high speed stream influences wane. A further suppression is possible toward the very end of the forecast period, or perhaps slightly after, due to the arrival of the HSS of CH75/+ 

Fluence levels are expected to remain below the 1e8 Active threshold initially, the risk of this being breached increases during day 3 and 4 (Nov 24/25) as CH HSS effects wane and the electron belts recover after a period of charging.