Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-10-30T00:11:28

High energy electron flux is beginning to rise in response to the high speed stream from coronal hole 66 and the subsequent increase in electron populations in the radiation belts. There is an increasing chance of reaching the high threshold during the diurnal maximum through the period as geomagnetic activity ease. However the solar wind pressure as a result of the strong speeds may distort the belts, with a sharp increase possible by day 2 and 3 (31 October and 01 November) as the speeds begin to ease.

24-hour electron fluence is forecast to follow a rising trend through the next four days, with the Active threshold likely to be reached by day 3 (01 Nov). REFM is beginning to indicate a response to the solar wind enhancements and should soon start to reflect current conditions.