Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-11-30T13:28:38

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is currently varying between Background and Moderate, however the arrival of multiple CMEs day 1 and day 2 (30 Nov and 01 Dec) is likely to drop these values to persistently background. There is some potential that as solar wind pressure day 3 and day 4 (02-03 Dec) flux will recover to give more persistently Moderate values, and a slight chance of High flux at diurnal maximum.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), as supported by REFM. However, a rising trend is likely from day 3 onward, once any CME influence recedes.