MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-12-07T13:27:34
Electron flux is currently at moderate levels. The Van Allen belts are now relaxing as the suppressing effects from CH76/- wane. An increase in electron flux, reaching high levels at the diurnal maxima is likely through the forecast period until the expected arrival of the HSS from CH77/+ on day 4 (10 Dec) results in a suppression in counts once again.
The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to increase through the coming days, likely exceeding the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold days 2-4 (08-10 Dec). REFM is considered to be providing reasonable guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-12-07T13:27:34 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 60% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 80% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 80% | 1% |