Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-12-08T13:07:58

Electron flux is currently at moderate levels. An increase in electron flux, reaching high levels at the diurnal maxima is likely until the expected arrival of the HSS, either late Day 2 (9 Dec) or early Day 3 (10 Dec) from coronal hole 77/+ resulting in a temporary suppression of the electron belts. Through Day 4 (11 Dec) the electron flux is likely to rise again with diurnal peaks possibly reaching High levels.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to continue to gradually increase through Days 1-2 (8-9 Dec), generally staying below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but with a chance to exceed this threshold. The fluence is expected to slowly decline through Day 3 (10 Dec) as the HSS arrives, but then perhaps showing an upward turn through Day 4 (11 Dec). REFM is considered to be providing reasonable guidance, keeping the fluence below the Active threshold.