Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-12-14T12:35:14

High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES16, is currently at Normal Background. The timing and strength of solar wind enhancement from CH79/+ is low confidence, but is currently expected to be relatively weak, occurring later on day 1 or day 2 (14-15 December). This will limit the extent of any increased flux through the Van Allen Belts, with observed flux probably rising to Moderate, and perhaps briefly touching High on day 2 and into day 3 (15-16 December). The arrival of a CME on day 3 (16 Dec) is then likely to return flux to background, although this also means that MOSWOC REFM guidance cannot be followed beyond this stage.

The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, with the scope of any post-CME rebound probably modest given its stature.