Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-12-16T00:39:50

High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES16, is currently at mostly background levels. Any current influence from CH79/+ is weak. Electron flux values at GEO are expected to remain fairly suppressed due to the likely arrival of two CMEs on Days 1-2 (16-17 Dec). As solar pressure from these features starts to ease, the observed flux may respond by increasing to moderate, perhaps peaking at high by Days 3-4 (18-19 Dec).    

The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold for much of the period, as indicated by REFM, although this model doesn't take account of CME impacts. Fluence may start to rise as the CME effects wane, with a chance of Active fluence by the end of Day 4.