Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-11-15T01:32:14

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) at GOES-16 has persisted at background. This is despite recent enhancements which likely increased electron populations at lower orbits (LEO/MEO). These electron populations have the potential to relax back to GEO, with periods of Moderate becoming increasingly likely, perhaps reaching High flux (1000 pfu) at diurnal peak. However there is also the potential for any enhancement from the glancing CME and CH70 on days 1-2 (15-16 Nov) to limit the extent that this occurs. Coupled with a natural decline, the extent of any increase in the observed flux remains low confidence.

The associated 24 hours fluence is expected to persist below the Active level, but with an increasing chance of rising above due to the low confidence with how flux levels will respond to any solar wind enhancements, and also the potential higher flux at LEO AND MEO. This appears to be supported by REFM, which keeps flux at low levels, however this model doesn't take account of any electron flux increase due to the recent solar wind enhancements