Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-11-14T12:11:39

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at high levels over recent days in response to the fast wind from CH67/-, but slowly declined after a CME arrival on 12 Nov. Further suppression of the electron belt may have transpired either due to weak effects from CH68/+ or a possible further weak CME arrival on 13 Nov.

There is low confidence in the behaviour of the electron flux in the coming days but we may see a relaxation of the radiation belt and an increase in the electron flux through Days 1-2 (14-15 Nov). This may then result in periods of High flux levels for the remainder of the period. The potential for a further weak CME glancing blow on Day 2 complicates the flux forecast, as this may suppress levels once again should it occur.

Electron fluence is now steady after a recent decline, but may recover towards Active levels from Day 2 onwards in response to the forecast increased electron flux. There is low confidence in the extent of any Active periods due to uncertainty in the electron flux and geomagnetic forecasts. MOSWOC REFM is suggesting an increase towards Active fluence Days 3-4 (16-17 Nov), but REFM has been performing poorly of late.