Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-11-05T13:37:27

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed at GOES16 has dropped to background levels due to the recent CME arrivals. A further arrival is likely to further suppress electron flux at GEO on 05 Nov as the belts are likely to be distorted, with the electrons displaced from their natural positions. After the CME effects ease, the electron flux is likely to slowly recover towards Moderate or High, but this is dependent on how quickly the geomagnetic activity eases. Further suppression is then possible due to the onset of the high speed stream from coronal hole 67. 

Associated 24-hour electron flux, may decline below the Active threshold on 05 Nov. Further enhancements are subject to multiple factors such as a CME arrival and high speed stream connections and are currently considered to be low confidence.