Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-01-13T00:40:48

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as measured by GOES16 at GEO is currently at background levels, and in the absence of any significant enhancement is expected to persist at this level throughout the four days. Any CME arrival on Day 1 (13 Jan) and HSS on Day 4 (16 Jan) are both likely to be weak features, with any significant increase in electron flux due to these features considered unlikely. There is just a slight chance of minor geomagnetic storms should we see a stronger blow from the CME which could give some flux increase, but the risk of this is considered very low at present. The associated 24-hour fluence is therefore expected to remain below the Active threshold.

MOSWOC REFM output maintains fluence well below Active throughout the next 72 hours. Even with possible glancing incidence of the 09 January CME slightly complicating matters, the most likely forecast remains a miss and REFM is likely to be accurate.