MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-02-11T13:37:41
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES16 is expected continue at mainly normal background levels, given the expected absence of significant fast wind streams.
The associated 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated flux) threshold, as suggested by MOSWOC REFM, although the current forecast period is likely to move away from a predictable coronal hole fast/slow pattern and more towards a threat of CMEs given AR3576's position on the disc, rendering REFM less reliable.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-02-11T13:37:41 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |