MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-02-18T14:16:55
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) at GOES16 is expected to remain at background levels. There are no significant coronal hole fast wind enhancements expected, and any potential CME glancing blow on day 3 most likely to be weak. These are not expected to drive a significant significant increases in electron flux.
24-hour fluence values are expected to continue well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, as suggested by REFM which is considered to be providing good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-02-18T14:16:55 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |