Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-02-20T00:35:28

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be muted through much of the period, with no recurrent feature on the disc having proved capable of generating Active fluence in the past rotation. The only source of enhancement possible in the period is the now-reduced likelihood of a potential CME arrival in the first half of day one, Tuesday 20 February. This is forecast to be a glancing blow, with limited charging of the electron belts. MOSWOC REFM is not indicating any significant enhancement in the period, however note that the dominant influence on electrons in the period is transient-related and not recurrent.