Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-02-12T12:09:30

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES16 is expected continue at mainly background. There are no coronal hole enhancements forecast, however multiple CME arrivals will also likely disturb the Van Allen belts through day 1-3 (12-14 Feb). These may see some increased electron population, but will likely compress inside of GEO.  As solar wind pressure eases later day 3 and more likely day 4, the Van Allen belts are likely to relax back to GEO. This may result in periods of Moderate, and a very slight chance of reaching High flux.

The associated 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated flux) threshold, as suggested by MOSWOC REFM, however this is likely to become less reliable through the period due to the arrival of a number of CMEs.