Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-02-13T13:31:23

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is at background and is forecast to be at this level in the absence of any CME arrivals. If a CME or combination of CMEs arrive, then after an initial decline due to distortion of belts and increased geomagnetic activity, there is a possibility of a sharp rise to moderate and perhaps high levels later in the period. This is likely to be due to radiation belts relaxing into natural orbits and spacecraft at GEO detecting the increased electron populations from the CMEs that have become trapped in the radiation belts. 

Associated 24 hour hour electron flux is expected to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but with an increasing trend towards the end of the period due to any inputs from CME arrivals.