Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-02-15T00:25:26

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is forecast to persist at background, although this may depend somewhat on the strength of any potential enhancement from any further transient CME activity on day 1 (15 Feb). Any stronger effects could populate the Van Allen Belts, but also initially compressing them inside of GEO. As any enhancement eases, and these expand outwards again, flux could rise to Moderate with a very slight chance of peaking briefly at High from day 1 onward (15 Feb)

The associated 24 hour electron flux is expected to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but may see an increasing trend later in the period. REFM is thought to be giving generally good guidance in the absence of any significant further CME arrivals.