MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-02-07T13:26:16
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is expected to persist at background levels. There is a slight chance of brief Moderate flux Day 2 (08 Feb) onward during the diurnal peak. There is a low probability of CME effects being observed at Earth Days 3-4 (09-10 Feb) which may act to suppress the electron belt towards the end of the period.
The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated flux) threshold, as suggested by MOSWOC's REFM, which is currently thought to be giving good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-02-07T13:26:16 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |