Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-02-08T13:17:52

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is expected continue at generally low to moderate levels, likely becoming mostly moderate by the end of the period. No appreciable connection to coronal hole high speed streams is expected through the period, with only negligible effects on the electron flux level. Several MOSWOC Enlil ensemble members indicate that a new weak HSS may arrive through Day 3 (10 Feb) but this is considered low likelihood and low confidence.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated flux) threshold, as suggested by MOSWOC's REFM, which is currently thought to be giving good guidance.