MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-02-01T13:24:34
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has spent the whole of the past 27-day rotation below High levels, with an absence of significant drivers to alter this state given the expected lack of potent coronal hole fast winds. Persistence suggesting significant electron flux is very unlikely.
MOSWOC REFM's projections and persistence values both imply a continuation of the current background state, this is considered good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-02-01T13:24:34 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |