Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-02-03T00:34:52

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been mostly at Normal Background levels, with a very slight day-on-day increase in amplitude to finish the UTC working week to give Moderate diurnal peaks. Any CME or HSS effects during this period are most likely to be fairly weak, and lack impetus for a significant increase in electron flux. There is a very low risk of an increase later in the period, should there be a stronger response to the CME or inbound fast wind than expected.

Overall, the electron fluence is expected to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated flux) threshold, perhaps with a slight rising trend later in the period. MOSWOC REFM's projections are currently underestimating the fluence, but still the overall below-Active trend is thought to be a good guide.