Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-01-03T01:26:02

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 continues to persist at mostly background levels. The fast wind arrival on 02 Jan was weaker than originally expected, with only minimal geomagnetic activity observed. Furthermore, no significant CME enhancement has been observed, with the X5.0 CME now looking more likely to have missed. There are further weak CME arrivals possible on day 1-2 (03-04 Jan) however these are unlikely to impact the forecast. Consequently, mainly background flux is expected to continue with a chance of reaching Moderate during periods of diurnal maximum.

The associated 24 hour fluence is forecast to persist at background, although a rising trend is likely day 3-4 (05-06 Jan), as solar winds ease. This is supported by REFM which is currently giving good guidance, however this may chance if any CME arrival occurs.