MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-01-04T13:27:06
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 continues to persist at mostly background levels. The weak fast wind of CH86/- is now beginning to wane. Only minimal geomagnetic activity observed at it's peak, with two glancing blows only giving unsettled (Kp3) geomagnetic activity for a time. With no further CME impacts expected, mainly background flux is predicted to continue with a chance of reaching Moderate during periods of diurnal maximum.
The associated 24 hour fluence is forecast to persist at background, with a largely flat trend staying well below the Active (1e8) threshold. This is supported by REFM which is currently giving good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-01-04T13:27:06 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |